Bakery break-even calculator

How many orders do I need to break even?

Divide monthly fixed costs by revenue per order minus variable cost per order, then round up to a whole order. With $600 of fixed costs and $12 contribution per order, you need 50 orders. This only works when contribution is positive.

Calculate your monthly order target

All amounts are USD. Use one consistent order type or a realistic weighted average. Demo numbers are illustrations, not typical bakery prices.

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Choose costs without counting them twice

• Fixed monthly costs: rent, subscriptions and other costs that remain within your planned volume. Capacity increases may change these costs.
• Variable order costs: ingredients, packaging, paid labor, processing fees and delivery that change with each order. Enter your actual expected costs.
• If owner labor is already an order cost, do not add the same compensation again to the surplus target.
• If rent is entered as a monthly fixed cost, remove allocated rent from variable order cost. Taxes on profit, loan principal and equipment purchases need separate cash planning.

Use net revenue after discounts and refunds; exclude sales tax collected for payment to the tax authority. This is an operating worksheet on your entered costs, not an accounting profit statement or a tax calculation.

Work through the demo

Contribution = $30 − $18 = $12. Break-even = $600 ÷ $12 = 50 orders. At 60 orders, revenue is $1,800, variable costs are $1,080, and fixed costs are $600: surplus is $120. A $300 surplus target needs ($600 + $300) ÷ $12 = 75 orders.

If contribution falls to $9, covering the same $600 needs 67 orders. Review the monthly target whenever your mix, costs or prices change. More revenue does not necessarily mean more surplus.

Questions to check before acting

What if variable costs equal or exceed the price?

No order contributes toward positive fixed costs. Raising volume cannot fix that unit economics problem; revise costs, scope or price first.

What if I sell different products?

Use a weighted average based on the order mix you expect to sell, and test a less favorable mix separately. Do not mix a price per cookie with costs per dozen or an order count per cake.

Can the target exceed my capacity?

Yes. Compare it with available labor, oven time and credible demand. If additional staff or equipment is required, update costs and calculate again.